Monday, May 12, 2014

Expensive Options

Anyone considering hedging their long only portfolio must have quickly discovered how expensive the NIFTY May expiry options are - I checked this morning for a 6500 put and it was trading aabove 100 around 108. The June options are much more realistically priced  -June 6500 Put was around 130 - so a premium of 22 Rs for a whole extra month. I think it is wise to stick to June expiry if you are a option buyer - May is only going to make money for option sellers.

The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Thursday, April 03, 2014

Short Term (2 Hr) Gold and Nifty Trend Charts


Posting short term charts for Nifty futures and Gold. Nifty closed on support and would be interesting if we can get a reversal ahead of the elections. Gold is bearish on the short term charts - although Silver (chart not shown) has reversed in the short term.


Gold 2 Hour Trend Chart

Nifty SGX Futures 2 Hour Trend Chart
The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

S&P pattern failure

Just to Update S&P 500 pattern has failed to follow through and is no longer active.

The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

S&P 500 Triggered a Negative Trendline Pattern

 S&P 500 index has broken a major trend support which could possibly take it to 1645-1650 area. I am posting the chart below: (The chart posted is for SPY, which is a ETF for S&P 500 index)

S&P 500 Triggers Bearish Pattern



The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Nifty and Sensex - Medium Term View

I finally got the inclination and the drive to look at Nifty and Sensex longer term charts and  arrived at a scenario that looks to me as a high probability scenario.

In both the charts(Nifty and Sensex), the formations are very similar, although the level projections are a bit different. I feel that there is a chance of a sell-off in Indian markets followed by a rebound. Now, this pattern is taken from Monthly charts, so it might take a few months to play out, but I have displayed the levels on a weekly chart just so it is more clear and legible.

In Nifty the level I see the markets possibly headed for is 5645 and then I foresee a rebound to 5970. In Sensex , I am looking for a sell-off to 19330 before a rebound to 20500 (almost the present level). As usual, anything to do with pattern projections is not straightforward, and there are situations in which this scenario would no longer be valid. One important thing I should perhaps point out is that I am not sure how we will get to these levels, i.e would we go higher from here and then go lower or keep going in a straight line? I don't know, and therefore I am actually not very keen on selling the markets here, only in buying for a rebound, it might seem perverse, but that's how it is.  Also, if we break the previous high, then the whole pattern would be probably off. And last, but the most important thing, these are levels from a Monthly chart, and therefore, have a lot of leeway in going past the levels and the trades still being valid - so its not a scenario for heavily margined punters - only for cash players.



Nifty Weekly Chart

Sensex Weekly Chart


The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Dow changes trend

Apologies for the long silence - but not much has been happening in the mkts in terms of trend changes - most markets are continuing with their old ways. Today however, one main trend change happened on my charts - after 14 months - the trend in Dow futures chart has finally turned bearish! It becomes all the more special when you consider that this trend was calculated from 2 hr charts - although I should add that I use very generous pull-back margins in this particular algorithm.

I am posting the Dow futures chart here - looking to update other markets very soon.

Finally the trend comes to an end after 14 months! Dow Futures Chart




The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Gold Long Term Charts

Posting Gold longer term charts  - including weekly and monthly charts - As you can see - Bearish in Daily and Weekly charts - but still bullish on monthly charts - the big support on monthly charts comes in near 1090.
Gold - Daily Trend Chart


Gold - Weekly Trend Chart
Gold - Monthly Trend Chart


The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Gold Daily Chart

Gold has had a trend change in recent days on my trend chart - here's the new chart:

Gold Trend Chart


The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Nifty Charts Update

Posting Nifty trend charts (Hourly and Daily) with a slightly modified algo.

Nifty Hourly Trend Chart

Nifty Daily Trend Chart


The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Nifty Trend Charts

Here's the latest charts from Nifty EOD index and intraday futures : The daily support held well in the end:

Nifty Futures 2 Hr Trend Chart

Nifty EOD Trend Chart


The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Nifty Trend Update

Nifty on support on daily charts (the chart shown is till y'days close), but looking dire on 2 hr charts. Perhaps best to wait for a trend reversal on short term charts first.

Nifty EOD Trend Chart ... near support

Nifty Futures 2 Hr Trend Chart - not looking so hot!



The comments and posts published in this blog are NOT trading recommendations. They can not be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading, it is at your own risk.